03 April, 2018

Kazakhstan’s Minister of National Economy: GDP growth will be 3.8% in 2018

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Minister of National Economy, Timur Suleimenov reported the main macro indicators and budget parameters for 2018 at the meeting of the Government.

The Minister reported that the nominal GDP in 2017 is estimated at 52.4 trillion tenge. It has increased by 558 billion tenge. Real growth amounted to 4%. Economic growth in January-February of this year also reached 4%.

The forecast for oil prices in 2018 was increased from $45 to $55 per barrel. The price index for metals increased by 0.4%.

"Taking into account the updated base of 2017, the nominal GDP in 2018 is projected at 57.2 trillion tenge. This is higher than the indicator approved in August for 1.3 trillion tenge. Real GDP is expected to be at the level of 3.8% (earlier it was predicted 3.1%). GDP per capita will increase to $9200," Timur Suleimenov said.

In addition, it is noted that the industry growth has been revised upwards to 3.3%. This is due to the expected higher growth in the manufacturing industry — 5.1%.

At the same time, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Energy, the volume of oil production in 2018 will be 87 million tons. Given the increase in world oil prices and economic growth, exports will rise to $54 billion, imports to $34 billion.

The inflation will remain in the previously approved corridor of 5-7%. Based on the adjusted macro forecast, the forecast of the parameters of the Republican budget for 2018 has been specified.

"Incomes (excluding transfers) in 2018 are estimated at 5.7 trillion tenge. This is above the approved plan for 190 billion tenge. Incomes to the National Fund are projected to grow by 546 billion tenge and will amount to 2.6 trillion tenge," Timur Suleimenov said.

The currency assets of the National Fund at the end of the year are projected at $58.3 billion, which is 34.7% of GDP.

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