At the Government conference call chaired by Prime Minister Askar Mamin, the Minister of National Economy Ruslan Dalenov reported on the updated macroeconomic forecast for 2020 as part of the socio-economic development forecast for 2020-2024 and the draft Decree of the Head of State on the Adjustment of the Guaranteed Transfer, primeminister.kz reports.

According to him, the main factors for updating the forecast are the unstable foreign economic situation, the emerging global recession and a slowdown in business activity against the background of protective measures for containing the coronavirus.
“Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have decreased by 65.7%, for metals by an average of 15.6%, global stock indices have declined by an average of 20.9%. As of April 1, 2020, oil quotes fell to $22 per barrel,” the minister said.
With this in mind, the average oil price for April-December 2020 defined at $20 per barrel. The estimated dollar rate is taken at 440 tenge per dollar and annual inflation in the range of 9-11%.
Amid low prices, the forecast for oil production was reduced by 4 million tons to 86 million tons. This leads to a decrease in mining production. At the same time, a decrease is expected compared to previously approved growth rates in the manufacturing industry, agriculture, construction and the services sector, including trade.
“Export will decrease by $16.3 billion to $35.1 billion. Import will decrease by $7.5 billion to $26.6 billion. Given the above factors, GDP is expected to decline by 0.9%. Nominal GDP is estimated at 69.7 trillion tenge, which is 4.8 trillion tenge lower than the approved forecast,” Dalenov informed.
Based on the adjusted macroeconomic forecast, the forecast of the parameters of the republican budget for 2020 is refined. Revenues of the republican budget excluding transfers in 2020 are estimated at 6,414.1 billion tenge, which is 1,672.3 billion tenge less than the approved plan.
According to the minister of national economy, the main decline is expected in terms of VAT, ETP for crude oil and revenues for the use of natural resources.
The revenue side of the budget takes into account all tax incentive and relaxation measures taken to implement the instructions of the Head of State. A property tax exemption has been established before the end of the year for large shopping facilities, shopping centers, cinemas, theaters, exhibitions and catering facilities, a hotel, hostels, and tourist activities.
“Individual entrepreneurs working in accordance with the generally established taxation procedure are exempted from individual income tax for up to the end of the year,” Dalenov said.
In order to support the agro-industrial complex, agricultural producers will not pay land tax on agricultural lands until the end of the year. The import of biological assets of the agro-industrial complex by the end of the year is also exempted from VAT. At the same time, the VAT rate was reduced from 12% to 8% for socially significant food products for the period from March 30 to Oct. 1.
As the minister emphasized, it is planned to release small and medium-sized businesses for 6 months until Oct. 1, 2020, from taxes and social payments from the wage fund (individual income tax, social tax, compulsory pension contributions, contributions and deductions for compulsory health insurance and social contributions).
This measure covers the sectors of tourism, catering, hotel business, large retail facilities, shopping centers, cinemas, theaters, exhibitions and sports and fitness facilities, trade entities, with the exception of the sale of food and drugstores, transportation services, consulting services and information technology.
In terms of tax administration, until June 1, 2020, a delay has been introduced for SMEs on the payment of all taxes and mandatory payments to the budget and social contributions (PIT, social tax, social and medical insurance for an employee).
In addition, for the period of the state of emergency, tax audits and forced collection of tax, customs and social debt were suspended. In general, all the above measures will cover 700 thousand taxpayers.
Dalenov also noted that in order to cover the expected shortfalls in budget revenues and to finance the anti-crisis package of measures, it is proposed to increase the guaranteed transfer from the National Fund by 2,070 billion tenge to 4,770 billion tenge in 2020.
In general, the republican budget expenditures are projected at 14,270.7 billion tenge with an increase of 1,356.4 billion tenge relative to the approved amount. The deficit is planned at 3.5% of GDP with an increase of 840.7 billion tenge. The level of non-oil deficit will be 10.8% of GDP.
UNDP is guided by the national development priorities
World • 17 November, 2020
The grand opening of the bust of Abai Kunanbaiuly took place in Bucharest
Lifestyle • 10 September, 2020
Kazakhstan to adopt program for development of pharmaceutical industry
Kazakhstan • 20 August, 2020
President Tokayev pays working visit to Turkistan region
President • 20 August, 2020
Head of state holds a meeting on anti-corruption issues
President • 20 August, 2020
Distance learning to continue in Kazakhstan from September 1
Education • 19 August, 2020
Ministry of Agriculture on 430 million tenge for subsidizing
Kazakhstan • 19 August, 2020
Kazakhstan exports 30 thousand tons of fish products to 36 countries
Economy • 19 August, 2020
PM Askar Mamin instructs to create programs for developing fisheries in all regions
Kazakhstan • 18 August, 2020
Government considers implementation of measures to support employment
Government • 18 August, 2020
President Tokayev meets with Minister of information and public development
President • 18 August, 2020
Nursultan Nazarbayev receives first Deputy Chairman of the Nur Otan party Bauyrzhan Baibek
Politics • 18 August, 2020
Quarantine measures be lifted gradually in Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan • 17 August, 2020
Kazakhstan and UN sign framework program on cooperation for 2021-2025
Kazakhstan • 17 August, 2020
The Head of State receives Minister of Trade and Integration Bakhyt Sultanov
President • 17 August, 2020
The chair of JSC Zerde National Infocommunication Holding appointed
Appointment • 17 August, 2020
The President receives Minister of Industry and Infrastructure Development
President • 17 August, 2020
About 1.4 billion tons of cargo transported by road in six months in Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan • 10 August, 2020
Enbek and Employment Roadmap programs considered
Government • 10 August, 2020
Kazakh President sends a telegram of congratulations to Alexander Lukashenko
President • 10 August, 2020
PM Askar Mamin informed about SK-Pharmacy’s measures to provide drugs to combat COVID-19
Government • 06 August, 2020
Issues of Kazakhstan's access to complex of candidate vaccines for COVID-19 considered
Coronavirus • 06 August, 2020
President Tokayev had a telephone conversation with President of Lebanon
President • 06 August, 2020
2.6 million students to study in distance
Education • 06 August, 2020
The Head of State receives Minister of Education and science
President • 06 August, 2020
Positive trend observed in fight against COVID-19 in Kazakhstan
Coronavirus • 05 August, 2020
Kazakh President instructs MFA to ensure citizen's safety in Lebanon
President • 05 August, 2020
Dozens killed, thousands wounded in Beirut
World • 05 August, 2020
E-commerce in Kazakhstan increased by one and half times
Economy • 28 July, 2020
Epidemiological situation in Kazakhstan stabilizing
Coronavirus • 28 July, 2020
29% decrease in CVI cases recorded since introduction of quarantine
Coronavirus • 28 July, 2020
Head of state speaks over phone with Uzbek President
President • 28 July, 2020
Over 2 thousand projects worth half a billion tenge approved under Economy of Simple Things
Economy • 23 July, 2020
Production of building materials in Kazakhstan increased 3.3 times
Kazakhstan • 23 July, 2020
Number of ambulance calls reduced by 23% in two weeks
Medicine • 22 July, 2020
Kazakhstan reaches stabilized level of epidemiological situation
Coronavirus • 22 July, 2020
Askar Mamin introduces First Vice Minister of Digital Development Bagdat Mussin
Appointment • 22 July, 2020
Investments - key to sustainable and high-quality economic growth
Economy • 22 July, 2020
Production in manufacturing industry grew by 4.8%
Kazakhstan • 20 July, 2020
National Bank to use all available instruments to keep inflation within range of 8-8.5% in 2020
Economy • 20 July, 2020
President holds a conference call on the fight against coronavirus
President • 20 July, 2020
About 281 thousand Kazakhstanis employed through the e-labor exchange in 2020
Society • 19 July, 2020
Over 22 million electronic services provided in Kazakhstan during pandemic
Technology • 15 July, 2020
Kazakhstan to introduce reference system of Export Guides
Kazakhstan • 15 July, 2020
Production in manufacturing industry grew by 4.8%
Kazakhstan • 15 July, 2020
National Bank to use all available instruments to keep inflation within range of 8-8.5% in 2020
Economy • 15 July, 2020
Ministry of Finance speaks about optimization of costs of state bodies
Government • 14 July, 2020
Joint plan of Government and National Bank to be adopted in Kazakhstan
Government • 14 July, 2020
Medicines supply to reach over 600 thousand packs per month
Medicine • 14 July, 2020
Government gives 42,500 tenge for loss of income
Society • 14 July, 2020
375 people died from coronavirus infection
Coronavirus • 13 July, 2020
Turkey sends humanitarian aid to Kazakhstan
Coronavirus • 13 July, 2020
Kazakhstan mourns Covid-19 victims today
Kazakhstan • 13 July, 2020
Operations Headquarters on COVID-19 keeps situation in regions under control
Coronavirus • 10 July, 2020
Government's anti-crisis measures: Restoring economic growth and supporting SMEs
Kazakhstan • 10 July, 2020
Aigul Shaimova appointed vice minister of national economy
Appointment • 10 July, 2020
28K people hospitalized with pneumonia in Kazakhstan
Coronavirus • 08 July, 2020
President Tokayev: Work on providing citizens with medicines continues
President • 08 July, 2020
1109 new cases of coronavirus confirmed in Kazakhstan
Coronavirus • 08 July, 2020
How the main city of Kazakhstan developed
Kazakhstan • 08 July, 2020
Russian doctors arrive in Kazakhstan
Coronavirus • 07 July, 2020
Nursultan Nazarbayev marks his 80th birthday
Елбасы • 07 July, 2020
Experts on Islamic finance and fintech industry in post-pandemic era
Coronavirus • 07 July, 2020
State Commission approves measures to stabilize epidemiological situation
Coronavirus • 07 July, 2020
SMEs can apply for new loan deferral — Madina Abylkassymova
Business • 24 June, 2020
PM Askar Mamin instructs to ensure readiness for heating season
Kazakhstan • 24 June, 2020
Government adopts measures to improve business climate in Kazakhstan
Government • 24 June, 2020
4 more new medical masks production enterprises to launched in Kazakhstan
Coronavirus • 23 June, 2020
Askar Mamin instructs to take measures to develop engineering
Government • 23 June, 2020
Similar news